Classical or gravity? which trade model best matches the UK facts?

Minford, Anthony ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2499-935X and Xu, Yongdeng ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8275-1585 2018. Classical or gravity? which trade model best matches the UK facts? Open Economies Review 29 (3) , pp. 579-611. 10.1007/s11079-017-9470-z

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Abstract

We examine the empirical evidence bearing on whether UK trade is governed by a Classical model or by a Gravity model, using annual data from 1965 to 2015 and the method of Indirect Inference which has very large power in this application. The Gravity model here differs from the Classical model in assuming imperfect competition and a positive effect of total trade on productivity. We found that the Classical model passed the test comfortably, and that the Gravity model also passed it but at a rather lower level of probability, though as the test power was raised it was rejected. The two models’ policy implications are similar.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Publisher:	Springer Verlag (Germany)
ISSN:	0923-7992
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	15 January 2018
Date of Acceptance:	19 December 2017
Last Modified:	08 Jul 2023 17:46
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/108158

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