A structural model of coronavirus behaviour for testing on data behaviour

Meenagh, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9930-7947 and Minford, Patick ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2499-935X 2021. A structural model of coronavirus behaviour for testing on data behaviour. Applied Economics 53 (30) , pp. 3515-3534. 10.1080/00036846.2021.1883531

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Abstract

We fit the logistic function, the reduced form of epidemic behaviour, to the data for deaths from Covid-19, for a wide variety of countries, with a view to estimating a causal model of the Covid virus’ progression. We then set up a structural model of the Covid virus behaviour based on evolutionary biology and social household behaviour; we estimated and tested this by indirect inference, matching its simulated logistic behaviour to that found in the data. In our model, the virus’ progression depends on the interaction of strategies by household agents, the government and the virus itself as programmed by evolution. Within these interactions, it turns out that there is substitution between government topdown direction (such as lockdown) and social reaction to available information on the virus’ behaviour. We also looked at the experience of second waves, where we found that countries successfully limited second waves when they had had longer first waves and followed policies of localized reaction in the second.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis
ISSN:	0003-6846
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	8 February 2021
Date of Acceptance:	24 January 2021
Last Modified:	06 Nov 2023 18:33
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/138292

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