Is there consumer risk-pooling in the open economy? The evidence reconsidered

Minford, Patrick ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2499-935X, Ou, Zhirong ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4610-7183 and Zhu, Zheyi 2022. Is there consumer risk-pooling in the open economy? The evidence reconsidered. Open Economies Review 33 , pp. 109-120. 10.1007/s11079-021-09622-w

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Abstract

We revisit the evidence on consumer risk-pooling and uncovered interest parity. Widely used single-equation tests are strongly biased against both. Using the full-model, Indirect Inference test, which is unbiased and has Goldilocks power according to Monte Carlo experiments, we find that both the risk-pooling hypothesis and its weaker UIP version are generally accepted as part of a full world DSGE model. The fact that the risk-pooling hypothesis, with its implication of strong cross-border consumer linkage, has passed this test with generally the highest p-value, suggests that it deserves serious attention from policy-makers looking for a relevant model with which to discuss international monetary and other business cycle policies.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Additional Information:	This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Publisher:	Springer Verlag
ISSN:	0923-7992
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	25 March 2021
Date of Acceptance:	25 March 2021
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2023 10:03
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/140067

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