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Zonificación de la amenaza por dispersión y caída de ceniza del volcán Guagua Pichincha, Ecuador (Translated title: Hazard zoning due to the dispersion and fall of ash from the Guagua Pichincha volcano - Ecuador)

Pavón Cevallos, Fernando Mauricio and Contreras Mojica, Diana 2021. Zonificación de la amenaza por dispersión y caída de ceniza del volcán Guagua Pichincha, Ecuador (Translated title: Hazard zoning due to the dispersion and fall of ash from the Guagua Pichincha volcano - Ecuador). Investigaciones Geográficas 105 (August) , e60315. 10.14350/rig.60315

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Abstract

The Guagua Pichincha volcano is considered the third most dangerous volcano in continental Ecuador, and represents a potential threat to the exposed population. In this research, the dispersion and ash fall at a 75% probability of occurrence are modeled, through a statistical analysis of numerical simulations, to zoning the volcanic threat through eruptive scenarios and census data with the help of computational tools. Thus, the amount of rural-urban population and categories of land use that would be affected were estimated. These impact scenarios would have different effects depending on the maximum expected thicknesses, ranging from 5 mm for the scenario with a volcanic explosivity index 2 (VEI) and 150 mm of ash accumulation for the stage with a VEI5;significantly increasing the number of towns, urban areas and category of land use affected in each scenario. The maps obtained show, for the VEI2 event (minor), seven parishes with a low impact, while for the VEI5 scenario (extensive – very extensive) there would be a high impact in 33 parishes, including the capital of Ecuador.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Earth and Ocean Sciences
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GB Physical geography
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Language other than English: Spanish
Publisher: Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico
ISSN: 0188-4611
Related URLs:
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 10 August 2021
Date of Acceptance: 1 March 2021
Last Modified: 20 Aug 2021 09:02
URI: http://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/143262

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