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A randomised controlled trial of a ‘checklist’ intervention to mitigate confirmation bias and improve forecasting accuracy in social work

Wilkins, David and Meindl, Melissa 2021. A randomised controlled trial of a ‘checklist’ intervention to mitigate confirmation bias and improve forecasting accuracy in social work. Available at: https://whatworks-csc.org.uk/research-report/a-ran...

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Abstract

Social workers make potentially life-changing decisions every day. These range from, choosing whether to accept a referral, undertaking a child protection investigation, pursuing care proceedings, and making judgements about the likelihood of future significant harm. But people are very poor at predicting the future. In part, these difficulties are caused by our susceptibility to cognitive bias (systematic errors in thinking that typically occur when we interpret information). A recent review of the literature found that there are currently no well-evidenced interventions to help mitigate the effects of cognitive bias in social work. In other fields, such as politics and economics, various interventions have been developed and found to significantly improve prediction of outcomes (forecasting abilities). This study examines the impact of a Checklist intervention through a randomised controlled trial, exploring the differences it made in relation to forecasting abilities and confirmation bias.

Item Type: Monograph (UNSPECIFIED)
Date Type: Publication
Schools: Social Sciences (Includes Criminology and Education)
Children’s Social Care Research and Development Centre (CASCADE)
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 1 September 2021
Date of Acceptance: 1 August 2021
Last Modified: 06 Sep 2021 15:45
URI: http://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/143804

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