Analysis of electricity supply and demand intra-annual dynamics in Brazil: A multi-period and multi-regional generation expansion planning model

Lyrio de Oliveira, Lucas, de Oliveira Ribeiro, Celma and Qadrdan, Meysam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6167-2933 2022. Analysis of electricity supply and demand intra-annual dynamics in Brazil: A multi-period and multi-regional generation expansion planning model. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems 137 , 107886. 10.1016/j.ijepes.2021.107886

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Abstract

The use of renewable energy sources in electricity systems has become an important strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the power sector and to avoid depletion of natural resources. However, uncertainties on renewable power generation, diurnal and seasonal variability, technology costs and regional resources availability are factors that have challenged their large-scale adoption. In this context, studies have been focused on how to best integrate different generation technologies with regards to costs and security of supply. Taking the Brazilian electricity system expansion as a case study, this paper proposes a new hierarchical modelling framework that integrates two electricity planning optimization models: (i) a portfolio theory-based model that deals with the trade-off between security of supply and expected supply cost and (ii) a deterministic least cost model that finds the amount of electricity to be produced by each generation technology. The proposed approach can provide information regarding expected total supply cost, electricity deficit risks, capacity expansion and expected greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, current government guidelines for renewables expansion are discussed with respect to the Brazilian targets for emissions reduction. Results point to a slight increase in renewables share from 82.4% in 2020 to 85.3% in 2035; however maximum established building rates for renewable generation projects are shown to be very tight and may hamper the achievement of emissions reduction. Overall, it is shown that renewable technologies are attractive for both the environmental and economic spheres, but fossil fuels will continue to play an important role for meeting demand.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Engineering
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0142-0615
Date of Acceptance:	13 December 2021
Last Modified:	10 Nov 2022 10:26
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/146815

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