Impacts of subsidy efficiency on bus electrification: A participatory system dynamic modeling

Rodrigues, Alyson L.P., Cipcigan, Liana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5015-3334, Potoglou, Dimitris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3060-7674, Dattero, Dominic, Wells, Peter ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4376-7178 and Regina da Cal Seixas, Sônia 2025. Impacts of subsidy efficiency on bus electrification: A participatory system dynamic modeling. Transport Policy 167 , pp. 210-221. 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.031 Item availability restricted.

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Abstract

This study explores the effectiveness of government subsidies in promoting the adoption of Battery Electric Buses (BEBs) and mitigating CO2 emissions to illustrate how political and contextual factors interact in this implementation. Case studies from Wales and Brazil were chosen to demonstrate results in different national contexts and identify differences and similarities in electrification initiatives. The system dynamics (SD) models are established through group model building (GMB) involving interdisciplinary workshops conducted with local researchers from both countries. Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) were employed to describe the system in terms of causal connections and mutual influences. The simulated results reveals that the static subsidy efficiency in 2030 for Brazil and Wales correspond to 43 % and 64 %, respectively. The emissions avoided per BEBs unit corresponds to approximately 129.848 tons CO2/year and 109.310 tones CO2/year, respectively. The originality of this research results from the development of flexible models as a decision tool for the electrification of public transport. Therefore, the findings are useful to both researchers and policymakers involved in crafting action plans of bus transit.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Schools > Geography and Planning (GEOPL) Schools > Business (Including Economics) Schools > Engineering
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0967-070X
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	3 April 2025
Date of Acceptance:	27 March 2025
Last Modified:	03 Apr 2025 15:30
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/177295

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