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International macroeconomic announcements and intraday euro exchange rate volatility

Evans, Kevin Philip and Speight, Alan E. H. 2010. International macroeconomic announcements and intraday euro exchange rate volatility. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 24 (4) , pp. 552-568. 10.1016/j.jjie.2010.05.003

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The short-run reaction of Euro returns volatility to a wide range of macroeconomic announcements is investigated using 5-min returns for spot Euro–Dollar, Euro–Sterling and Euro–Yen exchange rates. The marginal impact of each individual macroeconomic announcement on volatility is isolated whilst controlling for the distinct intraday volatility pattern, calendar effects, and a latent, longer run volatility factor simultaneously. Macroeconomic news announcements from the US are found to cause the vast majority of the statistically significant responses in volatility, with US monetary policy and real activity announcements causing the largest reactions of volatility across the three rates. ECB interest rate decisions are also important for all three rates, whilst UK Industrial Production and Japanese GDP cause large responses for the Euro–Sterling and Euro–Yen rates, respectively. Additionally, forward looking indicators and regional economic surveys, the release timing of which is such that they are the first indicators of macroeconomic performance that traders observe for a particular month, are also found to play a significant role.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Uncontrolled Keywords: Intraday volatility ; Macroeconomic announcements ; Exchange rates
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0889-1583
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 03:15

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