Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models

Zou, Qing-Ping, Chen, Yongping, Cluckie, Ian, Hewston, Richard, Pan, Shunqi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8252-5991, Peng, Zhong and Reeve, Dominic 2013. Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139 (671) , pp. 298-313. 10.1002/qj.2078

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Abstract

This paper presents an integrated ‘Clouds-to-Coast’ ensemble modelling framework of coastal flood risk due to wave overtopping. The modelling framework consists of four key components: meteorological forecasts, wave–tide–surge predictions, nearshore wave models and surf zone models. This type of ensemble prediction approach allows us to estimate the probabilities of various outcomes and so improve our understanding of the reliability of results. It also provides a measure of the uncertainty associated with predictions, which can be particularly large for extreme storms, and allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological forecasts to overtopping and subsequent coastal flood risk predictions.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Engineering
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	coastal flooding; overtopping; extreme events; ensemble prediction; uncertainty; sea wall
Publisher:	Wiley-Blackwell
ISSN:	0035-9009
Last Modified:	24 Oct 2022 11:16
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/47528

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