The accuracy of a Modified Croston procedure

Boylan, J.E. and Syntetos, Argyrios ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4639-0756 2007. The accuracy of a Modified Croston procedure. International Journal of Production Economics 107 (2) , pp. 511-517. 10.1016/j.ijpe.2006.10.005

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Abstract

A modified Croston procedure to forecast intermittent demand is reviewed. The modified procedure, published in this journal in 2004, consists of a new method for estimating the mean demand and a smoothing method for estimating the variance of the forecasted demand rate. It is found that the smoothed variance estimate is based on an invalid measure of forecast accuracy. Moreover, it is shown that the method of forecasting mean demand produces biased forecasts. The accuracy of this method is assessed, using simulated data and the mean square error measure, and compared with Croston's method and single exponential smoothing. It is found that Croston's method is generally more accurate than its modification, particularly for strongly intermittent series.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Intermittent demand; Inventory; Forecasting; Croston's method; Error measures
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0925-5273
Last Modified:	27 Oct 2022 09:22
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/65450

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