A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation

Rostami-Tabar, Bahman ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3730-0045, Babai, Mohamed Zied, Syntetos, Argyrios ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4639-0756 and Ducq, Yves 2014. A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation. Naval Research Logistics 61 (7) , pp. 489-500. 10.1002/nav.21598

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Abstract

Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics) Centre for Advanced Manufacturing Systems At Cardiff (CAMSAC)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Uncontrolled Keywords:	demand forecasting; temporal aggregation; stationary processes; single exponential smoothing
Publisher:	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
ISSN:	0894-069X
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	30 March 2016
Date of Acceptance:	30 July 2014
Last Modified:	24 Nov 2024 12:30
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/66013

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