Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference

Minford, Patrick, Theodoridis, Konstantinos and Meenagh, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9930-7947 2008. Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference. [Working Paper]. Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff: Cardiff University.

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Abstract

We use the method of indirect inference to test a full open economy model of the UK that has been in forecasting use for three decades. The test establishes, using a Wald statistic, whether the parameters of a time-series representation estimated on the actual data lie within some confidence interval of the model-implied distribution. Various forms of time-series representations that could deal with the UK's various changes of monetary regime are tried; two are retained as adequate. The model is rejected under one but marginally accepted under the other, suggesting that with some modifications it could achieve general acceptability and that the testing method is worth investigating further.

Item Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Publisher:	Cardiff University
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	30 March 2016
Last Modified:	28 Oct 2022 10:17
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/77748

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