Bayesian benefits for the pragmatic researcher

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, Morey, Richard D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9220-3179 and Lee, Michael D. 2016. Bayesian benefits for the pragmatic researcher. Current Directions In Psychological Science 25 (3) , pp. 169-176. 10.1177/0963721416643289

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Abstract

The practical advantages of Bayesian inference are demonstrated here through two concrete examples. In the first example, we wish to learn about a criminal’s IQ: a problem of parameter estimation. In the second example, we wish to quantify and track support in favor of the null hypothesis that Adam Sandler movies are profitable regardless of their quality: a problem of hypothesis testing. The Bayesian approach unifies both problems within a coherent predictive framework, in which parameters and models that predict the data successfully receive a boost in plausibility, whereas parameters and models that predict poorly suffer a decline. Our examples demonstrate how Bayesian analyses can be more informative, more elegant, and more flexible than the orthodox methodology that remains dominant within the field of psychology.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Psychology
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Uncontrolled Keywords:	parameter estimation, updating, prediction, hypothesis testing, Bayesian inference
Publisher:	Blackwell Publishing
ISSN:	0963-7214
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	21 July 2017
Date of Acceptance:	23 February 2016
Last Modified:	01 Dec 2024 12:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/102773

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