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Domestic energy use and suppressed energy demand in hot-arid climate

Shallal, Balsam 2019. Domestic energy use and suppressed energy demand in hot-arid climate. PhD Thesis, Cardiff University.

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The provision of energy services in many developing countries is insufficient to meet the growing demand for energy. The lack of access to energy infrastructure and poverty often result in unmet or suppressed energy demand, an appreciation of which is critical for the planning and development of energy infrastructures and services. Buildings account for 36% of global final energy consumption and 40% of carbon equivalent emissions. Therefore, understanding how suppressed demand is manifest in building energy consumption is essential to project future demand. However, many gaps exist in the literature on the nature and variability of suppressed energy demand in developing countries, especially in the hot-arid regions that rely on energy-intensive cooling to maintain indoor thermal comfort. Anthropogenic global warming and the resulting rise in surface temperatures will likely exacerbate this situation. This research aims to fill the gap in existing knowledge by developing an analytical method for the estimation of hourly suppressed energy demand in buildings and by investigating its temporal variability, and its influence on energy use and indoor thermal environment. Energy use was monitored at a resolution of 12-sec intervals, while the indoor and outdoor environmental conditions were monitored at a resolution of 5 minutes between January 2017 and August 2018 in seven case studies in Baghdad to identify baseline energy consumption against monitored ambient conditions. A questionnaire and semi-structured interviews were conducted among 210 households to investigate their energy use with the related dimensions including socio-economic influences and environmental systems. The analysis of the energy use and environmental data resulted in the development of a method to estimate suppressed energy demand and its environmental implications. The findings revealed that the average annual suppressed demand for all case studies was 7,846 kWh, which was equal to ~77% of the total annual energy use average. Suppressed demand was highest during summer in all case studies with 3,860 kWh higher than the average of spring, autumn and winter with 1,553 kWh, 1,421 kWh and 1,348 kWh respectively. This seasonal variability reflected on both hourly and daily suppressed energy demand amount, where they were the highest in summer, with a maximum of 8.5 kWh and 135 kWh respectively. However, the projected demand among the households was 18,089 kWh including suppressed demand, against the average annual use of 10,243 kWh. ABSTRACT B v The share per person of the annual amount of energy use was 1,789 kWh/capita·year against the estimated demand per capita of 3,094kWh/capita·year. Environmentally, 87% of the hourly measurements of the ambient conditions in the summer season were located within climatic zones where more air movement and humidity are required. The indoor thermal environment affected by both the suppressed energy demand and the severe outside weather conditions. More than 90% of captured hourly data in all monitored spaces in summer months needed more evaporative and mechanical cooling to maintain the environment within thermal comfort limits. This situation is expected to be worse with the trend of increasing the ambient temperature all over Iraq from 2 to 7 times faster than the global temperature rise. Moreover, covering the current housing shortage and the projected increase of housing units from 3.94 to around 8.4 million by 2030, more electricity supply will be needed, which could be hindered by suppressing the energy demand. The economic burdens of the suppressed energy demand resulted from the households’ attempting to bridge the demand-supply gap, especially in summer. For example, the monthly expenses for electricity from community generators during summer was the highest compared to other expenses for electricity (national grid and community generators in winter), where it was between 251,000 and 300,000 IQD, which equal to £160 to £193 per month for some households. The lack of consideration of suppressed demand can result in an underestimation of future projections by more than three-fourths of the current estimations and adversely impacts the indoor thermal environment. The method that was developed to estimate suppressed energy demand has the potential for wider application in both energy and environmental studies in Iraq and other developing countries in similar circumstances.

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Date Type: Completion
Status: Unpublished
Schools: Engineering
Uncontrolled Keywords: Domestic energy use; Suppressed energy demand; Hot-arid climate; Developing countries; Indoor thermal environment; Physical and socio-economic influences.
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 6 March 2020
Last Modified: 15 Jul 2021 01:20

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