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Forecasting peak energy demand for smart buildings

Alduailij, Mona A., Petri, Ioan ORCID:, Rana, Omer ORCID:, Alduailij, Mai A. and Aldawood, Abdulrahman S. 2021. Forecasting peak energy demand for smart buildings. Journal of Supercomputing 77 , pp. 6356-6380. 10.1007/s11227-020-03540-3

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Predicting energy consumption in buildings plays an important part in the process of digital transformation of the built environment, and for understanding the potential for energy savings. This also contributes to reducing the impact of climate change, where buildings need to increase their adaptability and resilience while reducing energy consumption and maintain user comfort. The use of Internet of Things devices for monitoring and control of energy consumption in buildings can take into account user preferences, event monitoring and building optimization. Detecting peak energy demand from historical building data can enable users to manage their energy use more efficiently, while also enabling real-time response strategies (including control and actuation) to known or future scenarios. Several statistical, time series, and machine learning techniques are proposed in this work to predict electricity consumption for five different building types, by using peak demand forecasting to achieve energy efficiency. We have used several indigenous and exogenous variables with a view to test different energy forecasting scenarios. The suggested techniques are evaluated for creating predictive models, including linear Regression, dynamic regression, ARIMA time series, exponential smoothing time series, artificial neural network, and deep neural network. We conduct the analysis on an energy consumption dataset of five buildings from 2014 until 2019. Our results show that for a day ahead prediction, the ARIMA model outperforms the other approaches with an accuracy of 98.91% when executed over a 168 h (1 week) of uninterrupted data for five government buildings.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Computer Science & Informatics
Additional Information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit
Publisher: Springer Verlag (Germany)
ISSN: 0920-8542
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 7 December 2020
Date of Acceptance: 24 November 2020
Last Modified: 05 May 2023 13:07

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