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Two new stochastic models of the failure process of a series system

Wu, Shaomin and Scarf, Philip 2017. Two new stochastic models of the failure process of a series system. European Journal of Operational Research 257 (3) , pp. 763-772. 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.07.052

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Consider a series system consisting of sockets into each of which a component is inserted: if a component fails, it is replaced with a new identical one immediately and system operation resumes. An interesting question is: how to model the failure process of the system as a whole when the lifetime distribution of each component is unknown? This paper attempts to answer this question by developing two new models, for the cases of a specified and an unspecified number of sockets, respectively. It introduces the concept of a virtual component, which corresponds to the part of the system that is replaced upon system failure. It then discusses the probabilistic properties of the models and methods for parameter estimation. Based on six datasets of artificially generated system failures and a real-world dataset, the paper compares the performance of the proposed models with four other commonly used models: the renewal process, the geometric process, Kijima’s generalised renewal process, and the power law process. The results show that the proposed models outperform these comparators on the datasets, based on the Akaike information criterion.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0377-2217
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 7 December 2020
Date of Acceptance: 19 July 2016
Last Modified: 09 Dec 2020 16:50

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