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To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling

Moffatt, Joanne, Scarf, Phil, Passfield, Louis, McHale, Ian G. and Zhang, Kui 2014. To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 10 (2) , pp. 161-172. 10.1515/jqas-2013-0112

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This paper uses a statistical analysis of match sprint outcomes to guide tactical decisions in this highly tactical contest and to provide competitors and coaches with a potential, marginal gain. Logistic regression models are developed to predict the probability of the leading rider winning at different points of the race, based on how the race proceeds up to each point. Key tactics are successfully identified from the models, including how the leading rider might hold the lead and how the following rider might optimize overtaking.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Publisher: De Gruyter
ISSN: 1559-0410
Funders: EPSRC
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 7 December 2020
Date of Acceptance: 31 December 2013
Last Modified: 10 Dec 2020 03:05

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