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The measurement of inflation during the lockdown: a trial calculation

Dixon, Huw 2020. The measurement of inflation during the lockdown: a trial calculation. [Working Paper]. Policy Paper, vol. 16. National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Available at:

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The big changes in consumption patterns during the Lockdown need not of themselves have a big effect on measured inflation. Using a guesstimate of lockdown weights for different types of consumption and applying them retrospectively to the 2019 inflation data as an experiment led to a slight increase in measured CPIH from 1.7% to 1.9%. This net increase comes as some types of expenditure whose expenditure shares are reduced by Lockdown include ones with lower inflation (such as Clothing and Footwear) and some higher (Restaurants and Hotels) than CPIH. The experiment suggests that the net effect is thus small. The behaviour of inflation as measured by the CPIH may remain a reliable statistic during the lockdown period, but we need to keep a close look at the details as the effect of the lockdown might lead to changes that make the CPIH less reliable.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Date Type: Published Online
Status: Published
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Publisher: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 27 April 2021
Last Modified: 27 Apr 2021 15:30

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