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A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Nivette, Amy E., Zahnow, Renee, Aguilar, Raul, Ahven, Andri, Amram, Shai, Ariel, Barak, Burbano, María José Arosemena, Astolfi, Roberta, Baier, Dirk, Bark, Hyung-Min, Beijers, Joris E. H., Bergman, Marcelo, Breetzke, Gregory, Concha-Eastman, I. Alberto, Curtis-Ham, Sophie, Davenport, Ryan, Díaz, Carlos, Fleitas, Diego, Gerell, Manne, Jang, Kwang-Ho, Kääriäinen, Juha, Lappi-Seppälä, Tapio, Lim, Woon-Sik, Revilla, Rosa Loureiro, Mazerolle, Lorraine, Meško, Gorazd, Pereda, Noemí, Peres, Maria F. T., Poblete-Cazenave, Rubén, Rose, Simon, Svensson, Robert, Trajtenberg, Nico ORCID:, van der Lippe, Tanja, Veldkamp, Joran, Perdomo, Carlos J. Vilalta and Eisner, Manuel P. 2021. A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime. Nature Human Behaviour 5 , pp. 868-877. 10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

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The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Social Sciences (Includes Criminology and Education)
Additional Information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
ISSN: 2397-3374
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 14 June 2021
Date of Acceptance: 17 May 2021
Last Modified: 05 May 2023 09:19

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