Study of impact of COVID-19 on industrial production indices using singular spectrum analysis

Borodich-Suarez, Sofia and Pepelyshev, Andrey ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5634-5559 2023. Study of impact of COVID-19 on industrial production indices using singular spectrum analysis. Statistics and Its Interface 16 (2) , pp. 181-188. 10.4310/21-SII719

Preview

PDF - Accepted Post-Print Version Download (605kB) | Preview

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on 8 different indices of industrial production (IIPs) for three major European countries: France, Germany, and the UK. The analysis is based on applying a combination of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) algorithms, in a way that allows for the proper separation of the trend and seasonal subcycles of the IIPs. The main purpose is to illustrate how to carry out the procedure of the correct decomposition by SSA for the specific series. The accurately extracted trends are analysed and the influence of the pandemic is calculated. The results confirm that necessary goods, such as food and utilities, have low income elasticity of demand since the effect of COVID-19 is negligible for these IIPs. However, for the IIPs of less essential products, the negative impact is much more extreme, although the severity varies depending on several factors, which also aligns with the economic theory.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Mathematics
Publisher:	International Press
ISSN:	1938-7989
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	25 January 2022
Date of Acceptance:	24 December 2021
Last Modified:	06 Nov 2023 14:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/146884

Actions (repository staff only)

Edit Item