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The impact of invisible-spreaders on COVID-19 transmission and work resumption

Hernandez-Vargas, Esteban, Wu, Chao, Xu, Cong, Mao, Feng ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5889-1825, Xu, Xiaolin and Zhang, Chan 2022. The impact of invisible-spreaders on COVID-19 transmission and work resumption. PLoS ONE 17 (1) , e0252994. 10.1371/journal.pone.0252994

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Abstract

The global impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is unprecedented, and many control and prevention measures have been implemented to test for and trace COVID-19. However, invisible-spreaders, who are associated with nucleic acid detection and asymptomatic infections, have received insufficient attention in the current COVID-19 control efforts. In this paper, we analyze the time series infection data for Italy, Germany, Brazil, India and Sweden since the first wave outbreak to address the following issues through a series of experiments. We conclude that: 1) As of June 1, 2020, the proportion of invisible-spreaders is close to 0.4% in Sweden, 0.8% in early Italy and Germany, and 0.4% in the middle and late stages. However, in Brazil and India, the proportion still shows a gradual upward trend; 2) During the spread of this pandemic, even a slight increase in the proportion of invisible-spreaders could have large implications for the health of the community; and 3) On resuming work, the pandemic intervention measures will be relaxed, and invisible-spreaders will cause a new round of outbreaks.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Earth and Environmental Sciences
Additional Information: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Publisher: Public Library of Science
ISSN: 1932-6203
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 9 February 2022
Date of Acceptance: 25 May 2021
Last Modified: 10 Nov 2022 10:34
URI: https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/147354

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