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Incumbency and identity: the 2021 Senedd election

Larner, Jac, Wyn Jones, Richard ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7698-5959, Poole, Ed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9817-5014, Surridge, Paula and Wincott, Daniel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9287-2150 2022. Incumbency and identity: the 2021 Senedd election. Parliamentary Affairs , gsac012. 10.1093/pa/gsac012
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Abstract

Taking place amid a global pandemic, the 2021 Senedd Election saw Welsh Labour returned as the largest party at the sixth consecutive occasion since the institution’s founding in 1999. Results for opposition parties were mixed: the Conservatives achieved their highest ever vote share but their seat tally fell short of pre-election expectations, and Plaid Cymru again made little progress. Using data from the 2021 Welsh Election Study we explore the election campaign and results and offer a first analysis of vote choice. We find that Labour not only benefited from incumbency advantages drawn from voters’ approval of the Welsh Government’s handling of the pandemic, but through its use of symbols, branding and messaging, the party continues to remain attuned to a national identity position that broadly aligns with that of the electorate as a whole.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Published Online
Status: In Press
Schools: Law
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HM Sociology
J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISSN: 0031-2290
Funders: Economic and Social Research Council
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 10 May 2022
Date of Acceptance: 14 April 2022
Last Modified: 28 Nov 2022 04:46
URI: https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/149523

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