Cardiff University | Prifysgol Caerdydd ORCA
Online Research @ Cardiff 
WelshClear Cookie - decide language by browser settings

The transient sea level response to external forcing in CMIP6 models

Grinsted, Aslak, Bamber, Jonathan, Bingham, Rory, Buzzard, Sammie, Nias, Isabel, Ng, Kelvin and Weeks, Jennifer 2022. The transient sea level response to external forcing in CMIP6 models. Earth's Future 10 (10) , e2022EF002696. 10.1029/2022EF002696

[thumbnail of Earth s Future - 2022 - Grinsted - The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models.pdf]
PDF - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (0B) | Preview


Earth is warming and sea levels are rising as land-based ice is lost to melt, and oceans expand due to accumulation of heat. The pace of ice loss and steric expansion is linked to the intensity of warming. How much faster sea level will rise as climate warms is, however, highly uncertain and difficult to model. Here, we quantify the transient sea level sensitivity (TSLS) of the sea level budget in both models and observations. Models show little change in sensitivity to warming between the first and second half of the 21st century for most contributors. The exception is glaciers and ice caps (GIC) that have a greater sensitivity pre-2050 (2.8±0.4 mm/yr/K) compared to later (0.7±0.1 mm/yr/K). We attribute this change to the short response time of glaciers and their changing area over time. Model sensitivities of steric expansion (1.5±0.2 mm/yr/K), and Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss (0.8±0.2 mm/yr/K) are greater than, but still compatible with, corresponding estimates from historical data (1.4±0.5 mm/yr/K and 0.4±0.2 mm/yr/K). Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) models tends to show lower rates of sea level rise with warming (-0.0±0.3 mm/yr/K) in contrast to historical estimates (0.4±0.2 mm/yr/K). This apparent low bias in AIS sensitivity is only partly able to account for a similar low bias identified in the sensitivity of GMSL excluding GIC (3.1±0.4 mm/yr/K vs 2.3±0.4 mm/yr/K). The balance temperature, where sea level rise is zero, lies close to the pre-industrial value, implying that sea level rise can only be mitigated by substantial global cooling.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Earth and Environmental Sciences
Publisher: Wiley Open Access
ISSN: 2328-4277
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 15 August 2022
Date of Acceptance: 1 August 2022
Last Modified: 29 May 2023 06:23

Citation Data

Cited 1 time in Scopus. View in Scopus. Powered By Scopus® Data

Actions (repository staff only)

Edit Item Edit Item


Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics