The pricing of unexpected volatility in the currency market

Lu, Wenna, Xu, Yongdeng ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8275-1585 and Copeland, Laurence 2023. The pricing of unexpected volatility in the currency market. European Journal of Finance 29 (17) , pp. 2032-1046. 10.1080/1351847X.2023.2190464

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Abstract

Many recent papers have investigated the role played by volatility in determining the cross-section of currency returns. This paper employs two time-varying factor models: a threshold model and a Markov-switching model to price the excess returns from the currency carry trade. We show that the importance of volatility depends on whether the currency markets are unexpectedly volatile. Volatility innovations during relatively tranquil periods are largely unrewarded in the market, whereas during the unexpected volatile period, this risk, has a substantial impact on currency returns. The empirical results show that the two time-varying factor models fit the data better and generate a smaller pricing error than the linear model, while the Markov-switching model outperforms the threshold factor models not only by generating lower pricing errors but also distinguishes two regimes endogenously and without any predetermined state variables.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Publisher:	Taylor and Francis Group
ISSN:	1466-4364
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	31 January 2023
Date of Acceptance:	22 December 2022
Last Modified:	08 Nov 2024 08:45
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/156399

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