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What is the forecasted prevalence and incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a rapid evidence map

Edwards, Deborah ORCID:, Csontos, Judit ORCID:, Gillen, Elizabeth ORCID:, Hutchinson, Grace, Sha'aban, Abubakar ORCID:, Carrier, Judith ORCID:, Lewis, Ruth, Tudor Edwards, Rhiannon, Davies, Jacob, Collins, Brendan, Cooper, Alison ORCID: and Edwards, Adrian ORCID: 2023. What is the forecasted prevalence and incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a rapid evidence map. [Online]. MedRxiv: Available at:

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It is becoming apparent that the NHS will face many issues in years to come due to the growth of ageing population in relation to the working age population alongside the increase in multimorbidity and persistent health inequalities, particularly for preventable illness. This has implications to how healthcare and health systems are delivered, and how the NHS will need to adapt to meet the increasing demand that this places on healthcare services. This rapid evidence map reports forecasted prevalence and incidence data across a range of long -term conditions in Wales to support planning about how best to organise and finance care for the increasing population with long-term conditions over the next 10 years. The findings by conditions include: atrial fibrillation, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, peripheral vascular disease, stroke, dementia, diabetes, heart failure, hypertension, mental illness, and multi-morbidities. Three risk factors for long term conditions were also included, i.e., poor diet/nutrition, obesity, and smoking. The review included evidence from 2012 to March 2023 Implications for policy and practice: Results show which long-term conditions are projected to increase over 10 years or more. Further preventive interventions through behavioural science approaches, with increased investment, should be considered to mitigate the rising prevalence of several preventable conditions. Smoking, excessive drinking and obesity are candidates for targeted preventive work, especially in areas of deprivation, to lessen health inequalities. Further research is needed for some conditions, and to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the burden of these conditions in Wales. Earlier diagnosis by genetic and genomic technologies and enabling lifestyle changes or by more cost-effective home care could reduce NHS costs of some long-term conditions.

Item Type: Website Content
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Healthcare Sciences
Prime Centre Wales (PRIME)
Subjects: R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
R Medicine > RC Internal medicine > RC0254 Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology (including Cancer)
Funders: Health and Care Research Wales, Welsh Government
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 2 January 2024
Date of Acceptance: 25 June 2023
Last Modified: 02 Jan 2024 11:51

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