Simulation of geological uncertainty using coupled Markov Chain: A case study at a manually filled Loess Site

Zhang, Yanjie, Ren, Xuezhi, Wang, Xu, Zhu, Hanxing ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3209-6831 and Jiang, Daijun 2024. Simulation of geological uncertainty using coupled Markov Chain: A case study at a manually filled Loess Site. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering 10 (2) 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1263

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Abstract

Stratigraphic variability contributes significantly to the deformation and stability of geotechnical structures. In this case study, the stratigraphic variability of a typical deep manually filled site in Lanzhou New District, Gansu Province, China is simulated. By applying Walther’s law, the relationship between vertical and horizontal transition counting matrices is established to calculate the vertical and horizontal state-transition probability matrices using a coupled Markov chain model. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to predict the distribution of soil layers. Based on borehole data, the effects of different borehole layout schemes on the estimation of the transfer probability matrix and prediction of the soil layer distribution are investigated. The results indicate that to obtain accurate estimations for the state transition probability matrix and predictions for the soil layer distribution, more evenly distributed borehole data should be selected. When the values of the diagonal elements in the matrix are high, the sensitivity of the transition probability matrix estimation to the borehole layout scheme is low. Multiple predictions of soil layer distributions using the same borehole layout scheme yield different results primarily because of the significant spacing between the boreholes.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Engineering
Publisher:	American Society of Civil Engineers
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	12 April 2024
Date of Acceptance:	2 January 2024
Last Modified:	19 Apr 2024 11:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/167924

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