Investigating the whole-life carbon reduction potential of new urban high-rise residential buildings in the northeastern cold region of China using a tailored consequential life cycle carbon assessment

Li, Kaiwen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3708-029X 2026. Investigating the whole-life carbon reduction potential of new urban high-rise residential buildings in the northeastern cold region of China using a tailored consequential life cycle carbon assessment. PhD Thesis, Cardiff University. Item availability restricted.

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Abstract

China’s commitment to achieve ‘Dual Carbon Targets’ places increasing pressure on the building sector, particularly urban residential buildings. In China’s Northeastern Cold Region, urban high-rise residential buildings (UHRBs) exhibit high whole-life carbon emissions due to long heating seasons and continued reliance on coal-based district heating. Existing assessments are largely static and attributional, providing limited insight into regional and temporal variation or the system-wide implications of policy-driven decarbonisation. To address this gap, this thesis develops and applies a tailored Consequential Life Cycle Carbon Assessment (CLCCA) framework to evaluate the whole-life carbon reduction potential of new UHRBs in the Northeastern Cold Region over the period 2020–2070. The framework integrates a representative UHRB typology, whole-life system boundaries, spatial–temporal climatic variation, and dynamic emission factors aligned with national decarbonisation pathways for the energy, transport, and material sectors. The results show that decarbonising space heating is the dominant driver of whole-life carbon reduction in UHRBs. Electrified and renewable-based heating systems, particularly air-source heat pumps and geothermal district heating, deliver the largest mitigation potential, achieving approximately 40–55% lower whole-life emissions over a 50-year horizon under median scenarios. Their performance strengthens as the electricity grid decarbonises. However, deployment is constrained by grid capacity, peak-demand impacts, energy storage requirements, and regional resource availability. District heating incorporating carbon capture and storage provides more moderate reductions (around 30–40%) and is highly sensitive to capture efficiency and energy penalties, suggesting a limited transitional role. Material-related strategies contribute secondary but meaningful benefits: timber substitution combined with reuse or recycling achieves whole-life reductions of approximately 20– 25%, while steel-based solutions remain strongly dependent on the pace of steel-sector decarbonisation. By contrast, further envelope upgrades beyond current standards and building-integrated photovoltaics offer only marginal long-term benefits as operational emissions decline. The findings are subject to uncertainties related to future policy trajectories, assumptions regarding marginal technologies, and the use of national decarbonisation pathways to represent regional conditions. Additional limitations include the exclusion of behavioural change, electricity-grid infrastructure emissions, and detailed future material substitutions beyond steel and cement. Despite these constraints, the CLCCA framework provides a robust basis for evaluating long-term decarbonisation pathways for urban residential buildings in cold regions of China.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Date Type:	Completion
Status:	Unpublished
Schools:	Schools > Architecture
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	7 April 2026
Last Modified:	17 Apr 2026 11:06
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/186253

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