Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study

Lowthian, Emily, Bedston, Stuart, Deavall, Olivia, Crick, Tom, Griffiths, Lucy J., Akbari, Ashley, Lee, Alex, Hammerton, Gemma, Heron, Jon and Forrester, Donald ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2293-5718 2026. Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study. British Educational Research Journal 10.1002/berj.70155

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Abstract

Children who are removed from their birth families during childhood—termed care-experienced—can be at risk for lower educational attainment and poorer school experiences, often linked to deprivation and behavioural factors. However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexities of care (e.g. timing, and placements) and evidence is needed to understand the factors that could explain the link between care-experience and attainment. We used anonymised, individual-level, population-scale linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, covering children born in Wales between 2000 and 2003. Children were followed until their examinations at age 10/11 and 15/16 to assess attainment. To capture the complexity of care experiences, we conducted latent class analysis to identify distinct care profiles. Using a three-step approach, we estimated the association between these profiles and attainment at age 10/11. To explore the pathways to attainment, we applied causal mediation analysis to assess how school-related factors—school moves, free school meals, and suspension or exclusion—mediated the relationship between the care profiles and their attainment at age 15/16. We identified seven care-experience profiles. Children who were adopted had the highest attainment, while those entering foster care later had the lowest. School-related factors explained some of the lower attainment among children with short, early care who returned home. These findings highlight the complexity of care experiences and their association with attainment. We advocate for improved support in Wales, including implementing the Virtual School Model and broader definitions to ensure inclusive support for children who may be hidden to schools.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	In Press
Schools:	Research Institutes & Centres > Children’s Social Care Research and Development Centre (CASCADE) Schools > Social Sciences (Includes Criminology and Education)
Publisher:	Wiley
ISSN:	0141-1926
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	21 April 2026
Date of Acceptance:	9 March 2026
Last Modified:	14 May 2026 14:29
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/186532

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