Zhao, Min, Bai, Xuezhi and Pan, Shunqi  ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8252-5991
2026.
Shifting streamflow regimes in the arctic: a multi-basin analysis using the VIC model.
Journal of Hydrology
675
, 135611.
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135611
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Abstract
Arctic runoff plays a crucial role in regulating the global freshwater balance, yet its long-term variability and controlling mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates streamflow changes across six major Arctic River basins (Mackenzie, Yukon, Kolyma, Lena, Yenisei, and Ob) from 1972 to 2024, based on observational dataset analysis and simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model. Multi-scale statistical methods are applied to assess long-term trends and scale-dependent relationships between climate components and streamflow. VIC simulations further attribute these changes to shifting contributions from rainfall (Rf), evaporation (E), snow water equivalent change (ΔSWE), and soil moisture change (ΔSM), confirming a transition from snowmelt-dominated to increasingly rainfall- dominated streamflow regimes. Yukon and Kolyma exhibit early and complete regime shifts by the 2000s, whereas Lena and Mackenzie remain in transitional states. Ob exhibits a relatively stable regime with increasing rainfall influence, while Yenisei retains stronger snow-related regulation but also shows a transition toward a more mixed runoff regime. These basin-specific trajectories reveal the heterogeneous response of Arctic hydrology to ongoing warming. Evidence from this study demonstrates an ongoing transformation in Arctic hydrological processes under accelerated warming, with significant implications for freshwater export, permafrost–hydrology feedbacks, and land–atmosphere interactions in high-latitude environments.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Date Type: | Publication |
| Status: | Published |
| Schools: | Schools > Engineering |
| Additional Information: | RRS policy applied |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0022-1694 |
| Date of First Compliant Deposit: | 10 June 2026 |
| Date of Acceptance: | 30 April 2026 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Jun 2026 09:00 |
| URI: | https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/186932 |
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