Evaluating retrofit simulation accuracy: A case study of six Welsh homes [Abstract]

Tadrak, Weronika, Chatzivasileiadi, Aikaterini ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5413-466X and Patterson, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4440-159X 2026. Evaluating retrofit simulation accuracy: A case study of six Welsh homes [Abstract]. Presented at: Eighteenth IAMC Annual Meeting 2025, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 11-13 Nov 2025.

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Abstract

Aging housing stock is a major barrier to improving energy efficiency and achieving Net Zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The UK residential sector accounts for 25% of national GHG emissions (BRE, 2025). Over 30% of homes were built before 1945, and many fail to meet modern energy efficiency standards (House of Commons Library, 2025; Statista, 2025). While deep retrofit strategies can reduce carbon emissions and costs (Fawcett & Topouzi, 2019), there is limited evidence on the predictive accuracy of simulation models and the scalability of retrofits (Luo et al., 2025). This study aims to address the gap between simulated and actual retrofit performance by evaluating whole-house retrofit applied to six homes in South Wales, UK, by the Centre for Low Carbon Built Environment (CLCBE) at Cardiff University. Literature reveals persistent gaps between predicted and actual retrofit performance. Whole-building simulations underestimate electricity demand by 20–40% due to static assumptions about occupant behaviour and unregulated loads (BRE, 2025). PV and battery modelling idealises degradation and inverter efficiency, overestimating self-sufficiency (Rees and Curtis, 2023). These errors are magnified in Smart Local Energy Systems (SLES), where shared energy flows and inter-household dependencies require dynamic modelling (Couraud et al., 2023). A 15% margin is adopted as a benchmark for acceptable error in building simulations (Oraiopoulos and Howard, 2022), which was adopted in this study.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item - unpublished
Status:	Unpublished
Schools:	Schools > Architecture
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	13 May 2026
Last Modified:	13 May 2026 10:45
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/186976

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