Which way down the rabbit hole? Examining the pathways to conspiracy mentality

Orpen, Isabella 2025. Which way down the rabbit hole? Examining the pathways to conspiracy mentality. PhD Thesis, Cardiff University. Item availability restricted.

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Abstract

High conspiracy mentality has historically been assumed an affliction of an extreme minority who believe any conspiracy theory. Events in the past decade have illuminated that conspiracy mentality may be more widespread than previously suggested and that it can manifest in a multitude of ways. This thesis deepens understanding by identifying multiple pathways to high conspiracy mentality and reporting how different pathways use social media platforms. This research adopts a broad conception of conspiracy theories and conspiracy mentality from a critical realist perspective to recognise the nuances inherent to this phenomenon. Using a configurational approach to understand how conditions combine with one another, this thesis integrates Social Identity Theory and the Tripartite Motivational Model. Therefore, allowing it to unpick the competing forces at play for: paranoia, religiosity, confirmation bias, trust in government and patriotism and their impact on conspiracy mentality. Using secondary survey data, this research finds the sampled UK population exhibit conspiracy mentality to varying degrees. Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis is subsequently employed. Findings reveal five pathways associated with the presence of high conspiracy mentality (PHCM) and three pathways associated with an absence of high conspiracy mentality (AHCM). Each of these pathways are then named, discussed and analysed in terms of their use of social media platforms. This analysis demonstrates heterogeneity among even those with similar levels of conspiracy mentality. These diverse types of individuals must be considered to reduce the potential backfire-effects of any unspecialised policies aimed at addressing conspiracy mentality. The implications of these findings should be interpreted in light of the limitations highlighted, such as the cross-sectional UK-based survey data. Future research should build on these findings by recognising heterogeneity in conspiracy mentality and apply the approach used in this thesis to other related areas where there are multiple routes to the same outcome.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Date Type:	Completion
Status:	Unpublished
Schools:	Schools > Business (Including Economics)
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	21 May 2026
Last Modified:	21 May 2026 08:04
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/187140

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