Smith, Poppy, Kay, William P., Wheeler, Jessica, Morgans, Ryland and Thomas, Adam
2026.
Preliminary evidence of a circadian rhythm effect on English Premier League match outcome.
Journal of Sports Analytics
12
10.1177/22150218261470130
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Abstract
The body's circadian rhythm regulates energetics, metabolism, and muscle physiology. While studies have examined the effects of circadian rhythm on the performance of individual athletes, little research has explored its impact on team performance. This study investigated the effect of kick-off time, match location, travel distance, and the opposition ranking on match outcomes in the English Premier League over four consecutive seasons (2021/22–2024/25). Results revealed a potential effect of kick-off time on win probability, suggesting that kick-off time may affect team performance. Across the range of kick-off times (12:00-20:15), predicted win probability increased by 1.8% for home teams (4.4% relative increase), whereas for away teams, win probability decreased by 3.2% (relative reduction of 10.3%). These findings suggest that circadian misalignment, travel fatigue, and routine disruption may influence match outcome, and may ultimately affect final league position, title races, European qualification and relegation. Although other factors (e.g., travel, accommodation, crowd energy) may also contribute, this analysis identifies kick-off time as a potential effect, reinforcing the notion that chronobiology should be considered in performance planning. Scheduling authorities may inadvertently disadvantage teams in late kick-off matches, raising questions of competitive fairness.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Date Type: | Published Online |
| Status: | Published |
| Schools: | Schools > Biosciences |
| Publisher: | Sage |
| ISSN: | 2215-020X |
| Date of First Compliant Deposit: | 3 July 2026 |
| Date of Acceptance: | 29 June 2026 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Sep 2026 10:42 |
| URI: | https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/187890 |
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