Future transport scenarios as narratives

Haggar, Paul Christian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8753-1848, Rana, Omer F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3597-2646, Radcliffe, Jonathan, Sharma, Ashish and Potoglou, Dimitris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3060-7674 2026. Future transport scenarios as narratives. Sharma, Ashish, Potoglou, Dimitris, Miranda, Fabio, Radcliffe, Jonathan and Anderies, John M., eds. Clean Energy and Equitable Transportation Solutions, IGI Global, pp. 59-72. (10.4018/979-8-3373-9908-9.ch004)

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Abstract

Scenario planning is an approach for exploring possible futures in transport, most appropriate in situations where future uncertainty is acute and subject to a wider variety of unknown variables. Scenario planning often utilizes intuitive logics, an approach that combines informed insights of experts and stakeholders. This chapter describes how scenario planning in the transportation system can be a valuable tool for exploring decarbonization options in a broader societal systems context. Each example is directed towards a particular category of factors that drive future events: the technological; the social and environmental; and the economic and political. This chapter also discusses potential avenues for improving the quality of scenario narratives and utilizing them alongside quantitative scenario analysis.

Item Type:	Book Section
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Schools > Geography and Planning (GEOPL) Schools > Computational & Mathematical Sciences Schools > Computer Science & Informatics Schools > School of Social and Spatial Sciences
Publisher:	IGI Global
ISBN:	9798337399089
Last Modified:	07 Sep 2026 15:47
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/188959

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