Uncertainty–dependency interactions in supply chains: A flow-based perspective on planning, control, and resilience

Wikner, Joakim and Naim, Mohamed M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3361-9400 2026. Uncertainty–dependency interactions in supply chains: A flow-based perspective on planning, control, and resilience. Presented at: 45th IFIP WG 5.7 International Conference, APMS 2026, Bergamo, Italy, 13-17 September 2026. Published in: Pezzotta, G., Gaiardelli, P., Cimini, C., Sala, R., Romero, D. and Baalsrud-Hauge, J. eds. Advances in Production Management Systems: Shaping the Future of Industry Through Sustainable, Data-Driven, and Human-Centric Production Systems. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology (809) Springer Nature, pp. 18-32. 10.1007/978-3-032-38602-1_2

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Abstract

Supply-chain performance depends critically on how flows are structured and managed under uncertainty. This paper examines how dependencies, both along and across flows, interact with different types of uncertainty to create fundamental flow challenges for planning and control. Building on a theory-driven, conceptual analysis, the study distinguishes between fluctuations (frequent, low-impact variation) and disruptions (rare, high-impact events) and analyses their implications for three established planning and control approaches: lot-based, repetitive-based, and bottleneck-based. The findings show that while these approaches effectively manage fluctuations through embedded redundancy mechanisms such as safety buffers, they are structurally limited when facing disruptions, as such events expose and amplify underlying dependencies. This leads to a convergence of flow challenges across different control logics under disruptive conditions. The paper contributes a flow-based conceptualisation that integrates dependency structures with uncertainty typologies and resilience capabilities, demonstrating that disruptions require resilience-oriented responses, combining agility and robustness, rather than traditional buffer-based control. The results provide a foundation for rethinking planning and control design in increasingly volatile supply-chain environments.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item - published (Paper)
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Schools > Business (Including Economics)
Publisher:	Springer Nature
ISBN:	9783032386014
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	22 September 2026
Last Modified:	22 Sep 2026 09:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/189753

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