Quantifying and mitigating thermal demand in UK residential buildings

Corcoran, Lloyd 2026. Quantifying and mitigating thermal demand in UK residential buildings. PhD Thesis, Cardiff University. Item availability restricted.

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Abstract

The decarbonisation of the built environment is a critical step towards achieving net-zero emissions targets, particularly in the United Kingdom where space heating alone represents approximately 37% of residential energy use. As climate change intensifies and extreme weather events such as heatwaves and cold snaps become more frequent, there is an increasing need to both accurately quantify thermal demand and develop effective strategies to mitigate its impact on energy systems and occupant comfort. This thesis presents a comprehensive methodology for quantifying and forecasting the thermal demand of typical UK dwellings, alongside evaluating strategies to reduce peak energy demand and overheating risk. A large-scale database of annual thermal demand is presented, which was generated using physics-based modelling, capturing a wide range of dwelling archetypes, orientations, and geographic locations for the UK housing stock. The modelling framework was verified against real-world data to ensure reliability and robustness. Machine learning techniques were employed to forecast future thermal demand under projected climate scenarios, incorporating weather data to assess the impact of climate change on heating and cooling requirements. Finally, the effectiveness of passive and active cooling mitigation strategies was evaluated using dynamic building simulations. Measures such as shading, ventilation strategies, and night purging have been assessed in terms of their ability to reduce indoor temperatures and alleviate pressure on electrical networks during extreme heat events. The contributions of this work are threefold: • A scalable methodology for generating high-resolution thermal demand datasets for UK dwellings. • A predictive modelling framework for assessing future energy demand under climate change scenarios. • An evaluation of mitigation strategies to support resilient and low-carbon building design.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Date Type:	Completion
Status:	Unpublished
Schools:	Schools > Engineering
Uncontrolled Keywords:	1. Residential buildings 2. Thermal demand 3. Building energy simulation 4. Machine learning 5. Passive cooling 6. Future climate
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	29 September 2026
Last Modified:	29 Sep 2026 15:34
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/189871

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