Trajectories of suicidal ideation and attempts across the academic year: longitudinal study of UK university students

Morse, Katheryn F., Brown, Sophie, Chamberlain, Samuel R., Matlock, Kevin A., Watkins, Edward R., Dooley, Jemima, Newbold, Alexandra, Duffy, Anne, Forty, Liz, Dorey, Lucy, Manchanda, Tanya, Byrom, Nicola, Saunders, Kate and Robinson, Lucy J. 2026. Trajectories of suicidal ideation and attempts across the academic year: longitudinal study of UK university students. The British Journal of Psychiatry 10.1192/bjp.2026.10797

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Abstract

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death among young adults, yet few studies have examined longitudinal trajectories of suicidal ideation and attempts across the academic year in UK university students. Aims The study aimed to identify demographic and psychosocial factors associated with lifetime suicide risk, examine factors associated with changes in risk trajectories, and evaluate the relationship between suicidal ideation and attempts over an academic year. Method Participants comprised 3295 students from 5 UK universities who completed longitudinal surveys in autumn and spring terms 2021–2024 in the Nurture-U study. Suicidal ideation and attempts were assessed with Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale items. Demographic, psychosocial and mental health measures were examined as potential risk and protective factors. Regression models with multiple imputation were used, with case–control analyses for smaller subgroups. Results Approximately 45.5% of students reported baseline lifetime suicidal ideation and 9.5% reported a past attempt. Factors associated with lifetime suicidal ideation included minoritised sexual orientation or ethnic background, male or gender-diverse identity, previous mental health treatment and adverse childhood experiences. Among students with lifetime ideation at baseline, 61.1% did not report ideation in the spring term, whereas new-onset ideation occurred in 3.5% of participants. Among students with prior ideation only, 1.3% made a suicide attempt during the academic year, whereas 10.5% with prior attempt history made a suicide attempt. Increases in depressive symptoms and rumination were associated with new attempts at follow-up. Conclusions Most students experiencing suicidal ideation during university have risk factors before university entry. Suicidal ideation alone showed limited specificity for identifying those most at risk of future attempts, highlighting the importance of targeted support for high-risk groups and ongoing monitoring of symptoms throughout the academic year.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	In Press
Schools:	Schools > Medicine
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press
ISSN:	0007-1250
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	15 October 2026
Date of Acceptance:	9 August 2026
Last Modified:	15 Oct 2026 10:15
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/190246

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