Are household subjective forecasts of personal finances accurate and useful? A directional analysis of the British Household Panel Survey

Easaw, Joshy ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3476-4300 and Heravi, Saeed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0198-764X 2009. Are household subjective forecasts of personal finances accurate and useful? A directional analysis of the British Household Panel Survey. Journal of Forecasting 28 (8) , pp. 667-680. 10.1002/for.1114

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Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the accuracy and usefulness of household subjective forecasts of personal fi nance. We use non-parametric directional analysis to assess the subjective forecasts which are based on qualitative judgments. Using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) we are able to analyse a large number of individuals over a number of years. We also take into account individual characteristics such as gender, age, education and employment status when assessing their subjective forecasts. The paper extends the existing literature in two ways: the accuracy and usefulness of subjective forecasts, based on directional analysis, are assessed at the household level for the fi rst time. Secondly, we adapt and extend the methods of directional analysis, which are applied to the household panel or longitudinal survey.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
Uncontrolled Keywords:	subjective forecasts; survey data; forecast evaluation; directional analysis
Publisher:	Wiley Blackwell
ISSN:	0277-6693
Last Modified:	19 Oct 2022 08:59
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/19689

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