Evaluating consumer sentiments as predictors of UK household consumption behavior

Easaw, Joshy ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3476-4300 and Heravi, Saeed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0198-764X 2004. Evaluating consumer sentiments as predictors of UK household consumption behavior. International Journal of Forecasting 20 (4) , pp. 671-681. 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.12.006

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Abstract

This paper investigates empirically whether consumersentiments indices, based on surveys complied by GfK, forecast householdconsumption types for the UK. Firstly, we use a quantitative equation approach to assess whether the indices are able to forecast householdconsumption growth in addition to traditional variables, which are included as control variables. Subsequently, using qualitative directional analysis, we investigate whether the indices are accurate and useful predictors as well. We find that, broadly speaking, both the headline, or aggregate, and the major purchasing indices have some predictive powers in addition to the control variables and are also directionally accurate and useful.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HM Sociology
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Consumer sentiments; Survey data; Forecastability; Household consumption behavior; Directional analysis
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0169-2070
Last Modified:	21 Oct 2022 10:15
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/39588

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