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The humble Bayesian: Model checking from a fully Bayesian perspective

Morey, Richard D. ORCID:, Romeijn, Jan-Willem and Rouder, Jeffrey N. 2013. The humble Bayesian: Model checking from a fully Bayesian perspective. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 66 (1) , pp. 68-75. 10.1111/j.2044-8317.2012.02067.x

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Gelman and Shalizi (2012) criticize what they call the ‘usual story’ in Bayesian statistics: that the distribution over hypotheses or models is the sole means of statistical inference, thus excluding model checking and revision, and that inference is inductivist rather than deductivist. They present an alternative hypothetico-deductive approach to remedy both shortcomings. We agree with Gelman and Shalizi's criticism of the usual story, but disagree on whether Bayesian confirmation theory should be abandoned. We advocate a humble Bayesian approach, in which Bayesian confirmation theory is the central inferential method. A humble Bayesian checks her models and critically assesses whether the Bayesian statistical inferences can reasonably be called upon to support real-world inferences.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Psychology
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
ISSN: 0007-1102
Last Modified: 27 Oct 2022 10:04

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