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Energy modelling of regions using stakeholder generated visions as scenarios

Lannon, Simon Charles ORCID:, Iorwerth, Heledd, Eames, Malcolm and Hunt, Miriam 2016. Energy modelling of regions using stakeholder generated visions as scenarios. Presented at: International Conference ‘Smart Energy Regions’, Cardiff, Wales, UK, 11-12 February 2016. Published in: Patterson, Joanne and Varriale, Fabrizio eds. Proceedings of the International Conference ‘Smart Energy Regions’, Cardiff, UK, 11th and 12th February 2016. Cardiff: Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University, pp. 84-96.
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To achieve the UK Government Carbon Emissions targets, large scale retrofitting of the built environment is required. This paper will explore the changes required to achieve the retrofitting targets for dwellings based on visions of the character of the Cardiff City region in 2050. The three visions of a utopian future: i) Connected Cardiff; ii) Compact Cardiff–Wilderness Valleys; iii) Orchard Cardiff City-Region represent scenarios with different societal and land use changes. They all achieve the 80% reductions required, but have different pathways to this goal. Building on earlier work based on “Bottom Up” urban scale model EEP, this paper will outline the modelling of large areas using extensive data sources that describe the existing stock. Together with the scenario work, this research models societal changes represented by population and household size change and the associated energy use. The paper discusses data sources required and methods to model population and household changes. The results generated from the model show the retrofit pathways required to achieve the targets set. In addition the outcomes of the research are visualised through mapping of the pathways across the Cardiff City region.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Architecture
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
N Fine Arts > NA Architecture
Publisher: Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University
ISBN: 978-1-899895-23-6
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 20 September 2016
Last Modified: 01 Nov 2022 09:43

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