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Domestic energy consumption data, drivers and prediction models for Punjab, Pakistan plus the potential energy supply contribution from domestic solar technologies

Awan, Usman 2020. Domestic energy consumption data, drivers and prediction models for Punjab, Pakistan plus the potential energy supply contribution from domestic solar technologies. PhD Thesis, Cardiff University.
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Abstract

Pakistan is an emerging economy with 210 million people and growing domestic energy demand, facing economic, geographic, geopolitical, energy supply and climate change challenges. The findings from this research are intended to support future government and energy industry policy in this area, especially the transition to a low carbon economy. Currently, 67% of Pakistan’s energy demand is met with non-renewable resources. The domestic sector consumes ~48% of Pakistan’s total energy demand, including biofuels. This thesis presents novel insights into Punjab (52% of Pakistan’s population) domestic sector energy demand drivers. A statistically significant 4597 responses obtained from a physical questionnaire survey conducted in 2017-18 allowed the derivation of domestic sector energy prediction models, along with the rooftop areas available for renewable energy generation amongst other unique data insights. The survey covered all ten Punjab divisions, enabling the models produced to be generally applicable to Punjab. The research found the key drivers of electrical energy demand per household are the number of appliances, number of lights, and the number and area of conditioned rooms. In the per capita models, the key drivers are the overall power rating of the appliances, particularly the power rating of the air conditioners for cooling. For annual gas use, the gross internal floor area and occupancy are found as weak demand drivers. The data obtained from the survey also allowed exploration of the potential for domestic solar renewable energy generation. The available rooftop area was shown to have potential to exceed the total current electrical energy demand of the domestic sector many times using current PV technology. A similar finding was achieved for the use of solar thermal technology for domestic hot water and space heating throughout the year. The thesis findings suggest that addressing the energy demand drivers of the domestic sector, and the encouragement of installation of domestic renewable energy systems could form a significant component in Pakistan’s transition towards a more resilient energy supply system and a low carbon future.

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Date Type: Completion
Status: Unpublished
Schools: Architecture
Uncontrolled Keywords: Domestic energy consumption Punjab Pakistan solar renewable
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 22 January 2021
Last Modified: 22 Jan 2021 15:49
URI: http://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/137895

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