SSA analysis and forecasting of records for Earth temperature and ice extents

Pepelyshev, Andrey ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5634-5559 and Zhigljavsky, Anatoly ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0630-8279 2017. SSA analysis and forecasting of records for Earth temperature and ice extents. Statistics and Its Interface 10 (1) , pp. 151-163. 10.4310/SII.2017.v10.n1.a14

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Abstract

In this paper, we continued the research started in [6, 7]. We applied the so-called Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to forecast the Earth temperature records, to examine cross-correlations between these records, the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). We have concluded that that the pattern observed in the last 15 years for the Earth temperatures is not going to change much, found very high cross-correlations between a lagged ONI index and some Earth temperature series and noticed several signifi- cant cross-correlations between the ONI index and the sea ice extent anomalies; these cross-correlations do not seem to be well-known to the specialists on Earth climate.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Mathematics
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Singular Spectrum Analysis, stability of forecasts, long-horizon forecasting, retrospective forecasts, SSA vector forecasting
Publisher:	International Press
ISSN:	1938-7989
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	3 May 2017
Date of Acceptance:	18 December 2016
Last Modified:	05 May 2023 16:36
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/100205

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