A Bayesian forecasting model of international conflict

Williford, George W. and Atkinson, Douglas B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4628-1664 2020. A Bayesian forecasting model of international conflict. Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation 17 (3) , pp. 235-242. 10.1177/1548512919827659

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Abstract

Scholars and practitioners in international relations have a strong interest in forecasting international conflict. However, due to the complexity of forecasting rare events, existing attempts to predict the onset of international conflict in a cross-national setting have generally had low rates of success. In this paper, we apply Bayesian methods to develop a forecasting model designed to predict the onset of international conflict at the yearly level. We find that this model performs substantially better at producing accurate predictions both in and out of sample.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Department of Politics and International Relations (POLIR) Cardiff Law & Politics
Publisher:	SAGE
ISSN:	1548-5129
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	5 February 2019
Date of Acceptance:	31 October 2018
Last Modified:	08 Nov 2023 06:16
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/119199

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