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Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision makers’ perspective

Orr, H. G., Ekstrom, M., Charlton, M. B., Peat, K. L. and Fowler, H. J. 2021. Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision makers’ perspective. Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 379 (2195) , 20200219. 10.1098/rsta.2020.0219

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Abstract

The UK Climate Change Act requires the Environment Agency to report the risks it faces from climate change and actions taken to address these. Derived information from projections is critical to understanding likely impacts in water management. In 2019, the UK published an ensemble of high-resolution model simulations. The UKCP Local (2.2 km) projections can resolve smaller scale physical processes that determine rainfall and other variables at subdaily time-scales with the potential to provide new insights into extreme events, storm runoff and drainage management. However, simulations also need to inform adaptation. The challenge ahead is to identify and provide derived products without the need for further analysis by decision-makers. These include a wider evaluation of uncertainty, narratives about rainfall change across the projections and bias-corrected datasets. Future flood maps, peak rainfall estimates, uplift factors and future design storm profiles also need detailed guidance to support their use. Central government support is justified in the provision of up-to-date impacts information to inform flood risk management, given the large risks and exposure of all sectors. The further development of projections would benefit from greater focus and earlier scoping with industry representatives, operational tool developers and end users. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Earth and Environmental Sciences
Publisher: Royal Society, The
ISSN: 1364-503X
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 27 October 2020
Date of Acceptance: 8 October 2020
Last Modified: 04 Aug 2022 23:25
URI: https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/135974

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