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Covid-19 transmission modelling of students returning home from university

Harper, Paul, Moore, Joshua and Woolley, Thomas 2021. Covid-19 transmission modelling of students returning home from university. Health Systems 10 (1) , pp. 31-40. 10.1080/20476965.2020.1857214

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Abstract

We provide an open-source model to estimate the number of secondary Covid-19 infections caused by potentially infectious students returning from university to private homes with other occupants. Using a Monte-Carlo method and data derived from UK sources, we predict that an infectious student would, on average, infect 0.94 other household members. Or, as a rule of thumb, each infected student would generate (just less than) one secondary within-household infection. The total number of secondary cases for all returning students is dependent on the virus prevalence within each student population at the time of their departure from campus back home. Although the proposed estimation method is general and robust, the results are sensitive to the input data. We provide Matlab code and a helpful online app (http://bit.ly/Secondary_infections_app) that can be used to estimate numbers of secondary infections based on local parameter values. This can be used worldwide to support policy making.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Mathematics
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
ISSN: 2047-6965
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 30 November 2020
Date of Acceptance: 25 November 2020
Last Modified: 17 Jan 2022 16:40
URI: https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/136640

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