Devolution, independence and Wales’ fiscal deficit

Ifan, Guto, Sion, Cian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8409-5654 and Wincott, Daniel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9287-2150 2022. Devolution, independence and Wales’ fiscal deficit. National Institute Economic Review 261 (1) , pp. 16-33. 10.1017/nie.2022.8

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Abstract

Debate around Wales’ place in the United Kingdom has intensified over recent years, with radically differing visions for the union of the Welsh and UK governments emerging alongside growing (though still minority) support for Welsh independence. This article argues that these constitutional debates must be considered alongside Wales’ current fiscal position. Wales’ estimated fiscal deficit is reflective of long-standing economic underperformance as part of the UK, which we argue is unlikely to be addressed under current economic, fiscal and constitutional arrangements. On the other hand, it also suggests a difficult economic outlook for an independent Wales, which would require tough fiscal and economic choices to address Wales’ apparent balance of payments deficit.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Cardiff Law & Politics
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press
ISSN:	1741-3036
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	24 June 2022
Date of Acceptance:	11 April 2022
Last Modified:	07 Jul 2023 17:22
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/150792

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