Can child protection social workers forecast future actions, events and outcomes? A case study of long-term work with five families.

Wilkins, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2780-0385 and Meindl, Melissa ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1231-0175 2022. Can child protection social workers forecast future actions, events and outcomes? A case study of long-term work with five families. Child Care in Practice 10.1080/13575279.2022.2118674

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Abstract

Across the UK, child protection social workers are routinely called upon to assess the likelihood of future significant harm to children. Yet making consistently accurate judgements about what may or may not happen in future can be a difficult task. In a previous study, we tested social workers’ abilities (n = 283) to forecast the likelihood of different actions, events and outcomes following real-life referrals to social services. Aggerate group performance was only 6% better than you would expect by chance. As a result, we wondered whether social workers could make more accurate forecasts in relation to families they know well.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	In Press
Schools:	Social Sciences (Includes Criminology and Education) Children’s Social Care Research and Development Centre (CASCADE)
Publisher:	Taylor and Francis Group
ISSN:	1357-5279
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	10 November 2022
Date of Acceptance:	18 August 2022
Last Modified:	14 Nov 2024 20:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/154084

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