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Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure

Gray, S. L., Dunning, C. M. ORCID:, Methven, J., Masato, G. and Chagnon, J. M. 2014. Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure. Geophysical Research Letters 41 (8) , pp. 2979-2987. 10.1002/2014GL059282

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Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently, errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root-mean-square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby waves in winter season forecasts from three operational centers. Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time. It depends strongly on model resolution, even though models are examined on a common grid. Rossby wave amplitude reduces with lead 5 days, consistent with underrepresentation of diabatic modification and transport of air from the lower troposphere into upper tropospheric ridges, and with too weak humidity gradients across the tropopause. However, amplitude also decreases when resolution is decreased. Further work is necessary to isolate the contribution from errors in the representation of diabatic processes.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Published Online
Status: Published
Schools: Earth and Environmental Sciences
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
ISSN: 0094-8276
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 17 March 2023
Last Modified: 03 May 2023 02:14

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