Assessing climate model accuracy and future climate change in Ghana's Savannah regions

Incoom, Awo Boatemaa Manson, Adjei, Kwaku Amaning, Odai, Samuel Nii, Akpoti, Komlavi, Siabi, Ebenezer Kwadwo and Awotwi, Alfred 2023. Assessing climate model accuracy and future climate change in Ghana's Savannah regions. Journal of Water & Climate Change 14 (7) , pp. 2362-2383. 10.2166/wcc.2023.070

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Abstract

This study aimed to compare the performance of six regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating observed and projecting future climate in the Savannah zone of Ghana, in order to find suitable methods to improve the accuracy of climate models in the region. The study found that the accuracy of both individual RCMs and their ensemble mean improved with bias correction, but the performance of individual RCMs was dependent on location. The projected change in annual precipitation indicated a general decline in rainfall with variations based on the RCM and location. Projections under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 were larger than those under RCP 4.5. The mean temperature changes recorded were 1 °C for the 2020s for both RCPs, 1–4 °C for the 2050s under both RCPs, and 1– 4 °C under RCP 4.5, and from 2 to 8 °C for the 2080s. These findings will aid farmers and governments in the West African subregion in making informed decisions and planning cost-effective climate adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on the ecosystem. The study highlights the importance of accurate climate projections to reduce vulnerability to climate change and the need to improve climate models in projecting climate in the West African subregion.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Earth and Environmental Sciences
Publisher:	IWA Publishing
ISSN:	2040-2244
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	7 July 2023
Date of Acceptance:	4 June 2023
Last Modified:	29 Sep 2023 07:21
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/160851

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