Ciampalini, Rossano, Kendon, Elizabeth J., Constantine, José A., Schindewolf, Marcus and Hall, Ian R.  ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6960-1419
2023.
Soil erosion in a British watershed under climate change as predicted using convection-permitting regional climate projections.
Geosciences
13
(9)
, 261.
10.3390/geosciences13090261
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Abstract
Climate change can lead to significant environmental and societal impacts; for example, through increases in the amount and intensity of rainfall with the associated possibility of flooding. Twenty-first-century climate change simulations for Great Britain reveal an increase in heavy precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss by rising the likelihood of surface runoff. Here, hourly high-resolution rainfall projections from a 1.5 km (‘convection-permitting’) regional climate model are used to simulate the soil erosion response for two periods of the century (1996–2009 and a 13-year future period at ~2100) in the “Rother” catchment, West Sussex, England. Modeling soil erosion with EROSION 3D, we found a general increase in sediment production (off-site erosion) for the end of the century of about 43.2%, with a catchment-average increase from 0.176 to 0.252 t ha−1 y−1 and large differences between areas with diverse land use. These results highlight the effectiveness of using high-resolution rainfall projections to better account for spatial variability in the assessment of long-term soil erosion than other current methods.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Date Type: | Publication |
| Status: | Published |
| Schools: | Schools > Earth and Environmental Sciences |
| Publisher: | MDPI |
| ISSN: | 2076-3263 |
| Date of First Compliant Deposit: | 1 September 2023 |
| Date of Acceptance: | 8 August 2023 |
| Last Modified: | 09 Sep 2023 19:34 |
| URI: | https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/162179 |
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